Ethiopia: on the brink of civil war and a flashpoint for imperialist proxy war

Ethiopia, once considered a linchpin for the U.S. imperialists in the Horn of Africa, is on the brink of civil war between two fighting factions: the rival Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Prime Minister Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed administration.
This conflict has the potential to draw in imperialists of all stripes because control over the Horn of Africa is critical to controlling oil routes, the capitalists’ lifeblood. The working class in Ethiopia and everywhere have nothing to gain from these ethnic divisions.
Bosses in the Tigray region (the ethnic group makes up six percent of the population) proceeded with regional elections after the central government had canceled elections nationwide suppoedly due to the pandemic. This set off a military fight. There have been rocket attacks on airports, jet fighters and infantry sent into Tigray by the central government and reports of brutal massacres of civilians. Workers’ access to the internet, phones, and electricity has been shut down as well. Over 550 have already died and countless others still stand to be displaced. Nearly 30,000 have already fled to Sudan. We must turn our guns on all these bosses and fight for communism, where workers run society.
A land mine for proxy wars
A conflict in Ethiopia could draw in the whole region and then some. These include regional imperialists like Saudi Arabia and Turkey but also the main imperialist superpowers, the U.S. and China. The competing interests can be a landmine for an eventual world war—something no imperialist is yet ready but all preparing for.
Eritrea, former enemy of war, is on the side of Abiy administration. Egypt, a competitor, can “could exploit current circumstances to sow further divisions…Somalia’s fragile government has long been underwritten by Ethiopian security…Finally, the United Arab Emirates has interests in both Ethiopia and Eritrea, and enjoys good relations with Abiy and Isaias — as well as Egypt and Sudan’s military brass” (Brookings, 11/16).
The U.S. ruling class’s internal weaknesses paralyze them from acting on their profit-driven needs. “The United States, meanwhile, has long deemed Ethiopia an important ally in a volatile region, and might have been an ideal intermediary. But the Trump administration’s wayward policies — including its unbalanced support for Egypt in the...Nile water negotiations — have left Washington with little clout at a moment of extraordinary peril” ((Brookings, 11/16).
Chinese imperialists wasted no time; they have poured money into Ethiopia, accounting for about 60 percent of foreign investment last year (Xinhua, 1/29). Recently, the Chinese bosses also established their first overseas military base in the neighboring country of Djibouti (see CHALLENGE, 12/9/16).
Under the president-elect Joe Biden’s administration, the U.S. imperialists will try to reclaim some of their influence in the region to counter their Chinese rivals. At stake is the chokepoint at the strait of Bab el-Mandeb.
Crisis opens the door to anti-worker violence
Local rulers of different ethnic groups have once again channeled the anger and distress of the working class from one region into violence against workers of other ethnic groups.
What is missing in this unstable mix is the leadership of communists and the building of a mass revolutionary party. Progressive Labor Party (PLP) can and must fill that void, uniting all workers and bringing internationalist politics and class struggle against this capitalist carnage. We must build that leadership for millions of workers and students and break free of the bosses’ global power struggles in the name of imperialist war.
The deadly consequences for the working class of this capitalist system are apparent and sharpening worldwide. We also see the mass fightback of workers and students who are standing up to the chaos and misery. PLP proudly salutes the example set by our class sisters and brothers and invites them to join our international struggle for a communist world without bosses or borders.