As the military conflict in Ukraine escalates, it shows just how unstable the world situation is today. With U.S. imperialists deeply divided and in steep decline, Western Europe in political chaos, Russian imperialists aligning with U.S. arch-rival China, and both rulers and workers beset by the latest international crisis of capitalism, competing bosses are speeding toward full-blown fascism and World War III.
Over the last two weeks alone, Ukraine’s nazi-laden military—propped up by the U.S. and European Union—blasted a critical Russian supply line in Crimea and shelled the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk. Russia retaliated with strikes on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, using cruise missiles and drones supplied by Iran, another U.S. arch-enemy. Thirty percent of Ukraine’s power stations were destroyed, and workers and children were killed on both sides. More than six thousand civilians have died since the war began in February (statista.com). Tens of thousands more face forcible dislocation as Russia imposes martial law on disputed territories.
No matter which imperialist ultimately wins, workers will ALWAYS lose in the bosses’ wars–unless we organize and turn them into wars for communist revolution. Only when the international working class is won over to communism, a society run by and for workers, can we end the bosses’ genocidal imperialist wars for good.
As U.S. and Europe decay, WWIII inches closer
Although the European Union (EU) has joined the U.S. in passing anti-Russia sanctions, its dependence on Russian oil and gas has constrained how far it can go. “This consumption pattern has put the bloc in an extremely awkward position as the Kremlin continues its military aggression in Ukraine while it profits from sky-high energy prices” (Euronews, 3/5). While the sanctions’ impact on Russia has been limited (cnn.com, 9/16), inflation and high energy prices are battering the U.S. and EU economies. Britain, the most reliable U.S. ally, is in an out-of-control spiral of inflation and recession (BBC, 10/12).
The old liberal world order is in shambles. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the U.S.-led military alliance formed in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union, is growing unwieldy and weaker by the minute. From Italy to Sweden to Spain, openly fascist parties are taking or sharing power or surging in popularity. In France, with the liberal fascist government rocked by a general strike, the rising nazi National Rally party is calling for an end to sanctions against Russia and has slowed the flow of French weaponry to Ukraine (Al Mayadeen, 9/18). In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz “ is facing political backlash from opposition parties and members of his own coalition over the question of sending heavier military equipment” (foreignpolicy.com, 9/27).
Meanwhile, Russia has deepened its ties with China, the main threat to U.S. imperialist dominance: “[T]otal goods traded between China and Russia surged 31 percent to $117 billion during the first eight months of 2022 compared to the same period last year” (foreignpolicy.com, 10/22).
The powerful BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), with 40 percent of the world’s population, has effectively backed Russia by staying neutral on Ukraine. India abstained from a United Nations Security Council vote to condemn Russia’s invasion (Washington Post, 10/10). Led by Saudi Arabia, the oil-exporting coalition of OPEC Plus—which includes Russia and Iran—undermined U.S./NATO sanctions against Russia by agreeing to a production cut that will bolster Russia’s revenues (Foreign Affairs, September/October 2022).
Imperialists’ weakness and volatility
Russia’s rulers have their share of weaknesses: a relatively small GDP (11th in the world), stagnant growth, and a heavy reliance on petroleum in a world that is slowly but surely reducing its dependence on fossil fuels (Georank.org, 2022). But like their counterparts in China, the Russian bosses have one big advantage over their rivals in the U.S. They are significantly closer to full-blown fascism, with a more united and disciplined capitalist ruling class that can maneuver more quickly and efficiently.
Although Russia has lost ground on Ukraine battlefields of late, the U.S. bosses have more fundamental problems. They are facing a sharp decline in military recruiting, and with “China and Russia challenging U.S. leadership globally, the lack of qualified recruits could become a fundamental national security handicap” (bgov.com, 9/21). While Putin’s recent military draft has been internally attacked and resisted, it’s difficult to imagine how stumbling President Joe Biden and a fractured U.S. ruling class could even try to pull one off.
The U.S. Big Fascists of multinational finance capital, represented by the Democratic Party, have stayed unified to this point in sending tens of billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine. But their hands may soon be tied by the “America First” Small Fascists—including a crop of anti-interventionist military veterans—who have hijacked the Republican Party. (See glossary, page 6) With the Republicans strongly favored to retake control of the House of Representatives in the November elections, the party’s second- and third-ranking leaders “wouldn’t commit to… keeping the aid flowing”” (Defense News, 9/16). House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy made his intentions clear: “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it” (Washington Post, 10/18).
Turn the guns around!
As three nuclear imperialist powers lock horns over who will control the world’s resources, they represent extreme danger and mass death for the working class worldwide. We cannot be fooled into picking a side in the bosses’ dogfights for supremacy. Workers in Russia are showing the potential for rejecting the bosses’ lethal nationalism. More than 200,000 have fled the country to avoid conscription into the military (msn.com, 9/28). Thousands of workers in 32 cities took to the streets against Putin’s draft, despite brutal police violence and the threat of prison time for breaking Russia’s anti-protest laws (The Guardian, 9/21).
The working class has a long and courageous history of fighting back In 1905, sailors led by communists on the Russian battleship Potemkin rebelled and killed the ship's officers. They sailed to Odessa, where a mass insurrection and strikes against the Russian bosses were in full force. When Czarist battleships were sent to intercept the rebels, their sailors refused to fire. The rebels escaped and sank the Potemkin to keep it out of the bosses’ murderous hands. Many of those sailors later helped build the Bolshevik movement that led the working class of Russia to power in 1917.
In 1972, Black sailors aboard the USS Kitty Hawk rebelled against racist attacks and the Vietnam War. According to the historian H. Bruce Franklin, the fightback grew out of “a coherent antiwar movement called SOS (Stop Our Ships/Support Our Sailors) that emerged on three of the gigantic aircraft carriers crucial to the Tonkin Gulf Strategy.” For two days, as Black workers fought with sailors loyal to the U.S. Navy, the ship was unable to launch its planes to attack North Vietnam. After more fighting broke out on the Kitty Hawk's oiler, the USS Hassayampa, the Kitty Hawk was forced to retire to California, “where it underwent a ‘six-month refitting job.’ The sailors’ movement had thus removed this major aircraft carrier from the war.” Several other carriers were sabotaged or set on fire, with thousands of crew members signing antiwar petitions, publishing onboard antiwar newspapers, and jumping ship to avoid service in the Vietnam genocide.
We must learn from the past. The power of the working class lies in refusing to fight for any group of fascist bosses. Only an organized, international working class, won to communist ideas, can smash the imperialists’ wars once and for all. Join us!