The United States empire is weaker than at any time since World War II. This weakness is exposing divisions among U.S. bosses over the future of their threatened empire, and in particular over U.S. relations with Russia. For now, the U.S. bosses seek co-existence with Russia and their other main imperialist rival, China, to give them time to mobilize for an inevitable global conflict. As the Council on Foreign Relations, the leading think tank for U.S. main-wing, finance capitalism, observes:
An extended standoff between supporters of a liberal international order and those who contest it may accidentally lead to outright conflict. A better approach would be for liberal countries to prepare themselves for a period of awkward coexistence with illiberal ones, cooperating on some occasions and competing on others (Foreign Affairs, January/February 2017).
Opportunistic on Russia
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Russia’s sphere of influence shrunk dramatically. Former Soviet nations were absorbed into the pro-U.S./European Union NATO bloc. More recently, the U.S. empire has entered a period of marked decline. In the post-World War II era, U.S. imperialist domination has centered on control of Middle East oil. After the 1979 Iranian revolution , however, U.S. domination in the region gradually waned. A resurgent Russia has expanded its regional influence and directly challenged U.S. domination. On December 20, in the latest setback for the U.S. ruling class, Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Moscow “to work toward a political accord to end Syria’s nearly six-year war, leaving the United States on the sidelines as the countries sought to drive the conflict in ways that serve their interests” (New York Times, 12/21).
These defeats for U.S. imperialism, and the bosses’ uncertainty over how to respond to them, explain their disarray over November’s presidential elections and Donald Trump’s proposed cabinet. Even so, the nomination of Rex Tillerson, chief of Exxon Mobil, is another indication that the rulers’ main finance wing will align a Trump administration to serve their needs.
At least one section of the main wing appears to be buying time for global conflict while making profits along the way. Where former Exxon Mobil CEO Lee Raymond was unable to close a deal with Russia in the 2000s, Tillerson found more success:
Tillerson had spent time in the 1990s overseeing a flagship Exxon project in Russia. And he flew there in 2011 to meet with Putin and announce a strategic partnership with Rosneft, the national oil company that absorbed [formerly privately owned] Yukos’ main assets after [Mikhail] Khodorkovsky was thrown in jail.
The two companies were to jointly develop potentially massive oil reserves in Russia’s Arctic waters, the Black Sea, and Siberian unconventional resources. Putin spoke of investments from the deal eventually reaching perhaps $500 billion—a big number even for Exxon. No sooner had the venture struck oil beneath the Kara Sea, though, than Exxon was forced to down tools as U.S. sanctions over the Ukraine crisis kicked in (Bloomberg, 10/12).
Tillerson is backed by core members of the U.S. foreign policy establishment: James Baker (secretary of state under George H.W. Bush), Condoleezza Rice (secretary of state under George W. Bush), and Robert Gates (CIA director under Bush I, secretary of defense under Bush II). All three have ties to the oil industry (Media Matters, 12/13).
With so much at stake for Exxon Mobil, a chief source of profits for the main wing, U.S. rulers may be prepared to accept a short-term political defeat by ceding influence to Russia in the Middle East.
Syria: Killing Fields of Imperialist Rivalry
As Syrian President Bashar al-Assad re-consolidates his control, despite U.S. proxy efforts to oust him, the Russian military is operating freely throughout the country--the first U.S. rival to do so since World War II. The sacking of Aleppo by the pro-Russian Assad regime could not have succeeded without military support from Russian imperialism. This campaign, brokered with regional powers Turkey and Iran, had no input from the U.S. or the EU. Turkey agreed to withdraw support from rebel factions in exchange for an oil pipeline deal with Russia (Reuters, 10/10). The strengthening of military and economic ties between Russia and Turkey is a significant reversal of fortune for U.S. imperialism.
After the failed U.S. invasions of Iraq, the new Iraqi government is leaning toward U.S. nemesis Iran. Several Iraqi military units are fighting under Iranian military leadership alongside Russia in support of the Assad regime. The potential rise of a Syria-Iraq-Iran axis, tied to an increasingly assertive Russia, would be a devastating blow to U.S. imperialism in the region.
Sharpening Infighting in U.S. Ruling Class
The infighting among U.S. intelligence agencies stems from the bosses’ disagreement over how to handle their imperialist rival. The forces around Trump seem to want to make a temporary deal with Russia; other elements of the ruling class are pushing to go on the offensive. Inter-imperialist relations are inherently unstable; competition and cooperation exist simultaneously. Regardless of whether the U.S. bosses make a short-term deal with Russia or take a more hardened stance, any alliance will be temporary. Given the perpetual economic crisis of capitalism, it could quickly disintegrate into open hostility, a potential prelude to the next world war.
The CIA now claims that Russian cyber-attacks were deliberately conducted to help Trump win the election, and that the U.S. must respond. Politicians of every stripe, including Obama, have vowed to strike back. The CIA accusations follow a series of alleged Russia-Trump connections, based on anonymous leaks from a secret investigation. It’s worth noting that former acting CIA Director Michael Morell endorsed Clinton in the New York Times and claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin “had recruited Mr. Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation.” Gen. Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency, called Trump “a clear and present danger” to U.S. national security (CNN.com, 08/09).
On the other hand, key sections within the FBI were furious that Hillary Clinton was not criminally charged for mishandling classified information. FBI Director James Comey’s October 28 letter to Congress, essentially reopening a closed investigation of Clinton and her aids, clearly damaged Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency (The Intercept, 12/10).
Fight for Communism
After the main-wing U.S. bosses bet on Clinton and lost, millions of workers are still looking for some other reform “leader” to save the day. Their disillusionment with the warmongering, racist Clinton—and their disgust with the gutter-racist and sexist Trump—presents an opportunity for the Progressive Labor Party. It doesn’t mean the masses will automatically flock to us. But many more people seem more open to communist ideas as the capitalist system exposes its true and horrifying nature for all to see.
Winning masses to PLP means fighting back on our job and school and building anti-imperialist, anti-racist struggles. When organized around communist ideas, these struggles build confidence in each other and in our class. The working class is the only force that can end this ruthless imperialist system. Join us!